019f8fd211
git-subtree-dir: users/wpcarro git-subtree-mainline:464bbcb15cgit-subtree-split:24f5a642afChange-Id: I6105b3762b79126b3488359c95978cadb3efa789
99 lines
3.6 KiB
HTML
99 lines
3.6 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<title>COVID-19 UK</title>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="output.css">
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</head>
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<body class="container mx-auto py-10">
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<div>
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<h1 class="text-center">COVID-19 in the UK</h1>
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<p>
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Up until recently, I used a couple of resources (i.e.
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<a href="https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html">one</a>,
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<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">two</a>) for tracking
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an updated number of confirmed covid-19 cases.
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</p>
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<p>
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Given the high speed at which the virus is spreading, I was having a
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difficult time intuiting the shape of this growth. For example if today
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the total number of confirmed cases for covid-19 in the UK was 500, I
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could not remember if yesterday it was 450, 400, or 200.
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</p>
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<p>
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Thankfully someone is <a
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href="https://github.com/pomber/covid19">publishing this data</a> as a
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timeseries database. I am currently living in London, so I decided to
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chart the <u>daily number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the UK</u> to
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better understand what is happening.
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</p>
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</div>
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<canvas id="myChart" class="py-12"></canvas>
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<script src="./node_modules/chart.js/dist/Chart.bundle.min.js"></script>
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<script>
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var timeseries =
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fetch('https://pomber.github.io/covid19/timeseries.json')
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.then(res => res.json())
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.then(createChart);
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function createChart(data) {
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var uk = data["United Kingdom"];
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var data = uk.map(x => x["confirmed"]);
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var labels = uk.map(x => x["date"]);
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var ctx = document.getElementById('myChart').getContext('2d');
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var myChart = new Chart(ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: labels,
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datasets: [{
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label: 'Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.K.',
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data: data,
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 0, 100, 0.2)',
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borderWidth: 3
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}]
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},
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options: {
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scales: {
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yAxes: [{
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ticks: {
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beginAtZero: true
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}
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}]
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}
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}
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});
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}
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</script>
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<div>
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<h2 class="text-center">Back of the envelope predictions</h2>
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<p>
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From what I have read, a population where 60% of its constituents have
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been infected with covid-19 and have recovered is said to have "herd
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immunity". Once a population has herd immunity, the rate at which the
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virus spreads decreases.
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</p>
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<p>
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Roughly 60M people live in the UK; 60% of 60M is around 40M. Before a
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population reaches "herd immunity", the total number of <em>true
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covid-19 cases</em> <u>doubles every five days</u>. Therefore in <u>fifty
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days</u> you might expect the number of true cases to be <u>1000x
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larger</u> than what it is today.
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</p>
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<p>
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So if you think the total number of <em>true covid-19 cases</em>
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<u>today</u> is 40,000 then you might expect the rate of growth to slow
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down in a little less than two months.
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</p>
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<p>
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Thank you for reading.
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</p>
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</div>
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<footer class="pt-5 mb-8 lg:flex">
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<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://learn.wpcarro.dev">Learn</a>
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<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://blog.wpcarro.dev">Blog</a>
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<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://twitter.com/wpcarro">Twitter</a>
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<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://github.com/wpcarro">Github</a>
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</footer>
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</body>
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</html>
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